Sur le sujet de l'inflation, j'ai lu avec attention l'intervention de Stanley FISCHER, Gouverneur de la Banque d'Israël, à la conférence des régulateurs boursiers (IOSCO), qui s'est tenue à Tel-Aviv cette semaine. Le propos est plus que clair."Central banks will have to withdraw excess liquidity pumped into financial systems to prevent an inflationary bubble", Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said Wednesday at the International Organization of Securities Commissions conference in Tel Aviv.
"Whether or not these concerns about inflation become reality depends primarily on central banks and their willingness to raise interest rates and withdraw liquidity from the system as the recovery gets under way and inflationary risks increase," he said. "In some cases this will have to be done sooner, in others later."
"This conference takes place in the wake of the most challenging crisis, many would say," Fischer said. "But I would say we have been experiencing the most frightening crisis since the Great Depression.
"Due mainly to unprecedented actions by the US Federal Reserve, in particular, and central banks, in general, the financial situation was first stabilized and has now begun to return to a more normal functioning. Now we have reached the point when central banks will need to start withdrawing the liquidity pumped into the financial system in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse to prevent what everyone worries about: a rise in inflation and another bubble." (Source : Jerusalem Post).
"Whether or not these concerns about inflation become reality depends primarily on central banks and their willingness to raise interest rates and withdraw liquidity from the system as the recovery gets under way and inflationary risks increase," he said. "In some cases this will have to be done sooner, in others later."
"This conference takes place in the wake of the most challenging crisis, many would say," Fischer said. "But I would say we have been experiencing the most frightening crisis since the Great Depression.
"Due mainly to unprecedented actions by the US Federal Reserve, in particular, and central banks, in general, the financial situation was first stabilized and has now begun to return to a more normal functioning. Now we have reached the point when central banks will need to start withdrawing the liquidity pumped into the financial system in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse to prevent what everyone worries about: a rise in inflation and another bubble." (Source : Jerusalem Post).
A noter que Stanley FISCHER a été le directeur de thèse d'un certain Ben BERNANKE, lorsque celui-ci préparait son doctorat. A mon avis, son avis reflète donc bien une préoccupation partagée des gouverneurs de banques centrales.
4 commentaires:
Pierre,
Le problème est de savoir quand les taux vont remonter. A priori, les US repartiront 6 à 9 mois avant l'Europe, d'où un décalage entre les deux mouvements. Je parie sur la fin de l'année pour le début de la hausse.
Si le différentiel entre les taux est trop important, il y a un risque de rebaisse du $, ce qui ne va pas faire du bien aux industries Européennes (je suis bien placé pour le savoir).
Antoine
We see here some deflation at the wholesale level in non food categories and a steady increase in the food sector. This is based on what retailers experience as of late
Antoine
Le lien entre le niveau des taux directeurs et les parités monétaires est tout sauf stable et évident. Pendant la crise, la baisse des taux, plus importante pour la FED que pour la BCE, s'est accompagnée d'une remontée forte du $ / €, à cause d'une beaucoup plus forte avesion pour le risque. Je ne sais pas si la FED va augmenter ses taux avant la BCE, et je n'ai pour ma part aucune idée de l'impact que cela aura sur la parité $/€.
Par ailleurs, j'ai bien conscience de ton problème, quand tes concurrents sont des américains facturant en $.
Marc
Thank for your comment.
The problem is to know how you can protect your margins while expanding your business, if your industry is still in an inflationnary environment, when the prices are stable or deflationist in the economy as a whole.
I expect it to be challenging !
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